Decision to govern
Does guided first-value activation earn wider funding?
Open evidence record Executive brief / TX-BRIEF-LIFE-01
- Artifact
- Executive brief
- Evidence status
- Synthetic model / not client evidence
- Record ID
- TX-BRIEF-LIFE-01
- Record
- Synthetic intervention portfolio / illustrative values
- Decision question
- Which lifecycle intervention deserves controlled exposure and an owner?
- Population
- 11.8k eligible customers per month
- Measurement horizon
- 90-day retained contribution
- Maximum test investment
- $68k illustrative cap
The intervention and its proof travel together.
- 01Eligibility
Freeze the cohort before exposure.
New, high-potential customers who have not reached the first-value event within 48 hours. Eligibility is assigned once and does not refresh mid-test.
- 02Assignment
Preserve a durable counterfactual.
90% treatment and 10% persistent holdout at customer level. No cross-over, suppression override, or journey substitution during the measurement window.
- 03Economics
Measure earned value after cost.
Primary outcome is incremental 90-day contribution. Delivery and incentive cost are charged to treatment before the funding decision.
- 04Decision gate
Scale only when the downside is bounded.
The lower interval bound for net incremental contribution must remain above zero and the point estimate must clear the pre-agreed operating hurdle.
Four sign-offs. No invisible handoff.
Use horizontal scrolling to inspect every accountability and sign-off.
Inspect early. Decide at the right horizon.
- Day 0Specification freeze
Eligibility, assignment, exposure, outcome, costs, guardrails, and exclusions signed.
- Day 14Integrity review
Check assignment balance, contamination, delivery defects, and early harm only.
- Day 30Leading-signal read
Review first-value movement without changing the 90-day funding rule.
- Day 90Capital decision
Scale, iterate, or stop on net incremental retained contribution.